Super Bowl Squares: How They Work And How To Bet

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Sharp sports bettors will know that the number assigned to a spread can make all the difference in the world. A line of +2.5 isn’t that significant in NFL betting since there are rarely two-point scores (safeties), but a line of +3.5 is important since three points (field goals) is a common scoring denomination.

The three critical numbers in NFL betting are three, six and seven — the most common scoring outcomes. Ten, 13, 14, 17 and 20 can also be considered important (but not quite critical) since they are combinations of common scoring denominations.

The same rule applies for Super Bowl squares — three, six and seven are common occurrences. Zero, one and four are more common than three, but less common than six and seven.

Traditional logic suggests that betting a square with a combination of those numbers gives a bettor the best chance to win. However, those squares typically have shorter odds than others, meaning there’s less bang for your buck. That’s part of the risk-reward factor bettors must consider before selecting their squares.

History and Trends

Below is a complete breakdown of how frequently a number between 0 and 9 appeared in an end-of-game Super Bowl square (meaning it was the final digit in a team’s score) leading up to Super Bowl LVIII.

  • 0 – 15 (13.2%)
  • 1 – 16 (14%)
  • 2 – 4 (3.5%)
  • 3 – 12 (10.5%)
  • 4 – 15 (13.2%)
  • 5 – 6 (5.3%)
  • 6 – 10 (8.8%)
  • 7 – 20 (17.5%)
  • 8 – 7 (6.1%)
  • 9 – 9 (7.9%)

Statistically, the most common Super Bowl square is 7:7. A 17.5% chance that one seven occurs means there’s a 3.1% chance of a 7:7 square. That introduces a new variable, however, since end-of-game squares with the same number cannot be produced in tied games.

Therefore, all scores of 7-7, 17-17, 27-27, 37-37, etc., would not be included in that Super Bowl square since the Super Bowl cannot end in a tie.

These numbers look different for every quarter. Zero is the most common outcome for first-quarter squares, with nearly half of the teams that played in the Super Bowl registering a scoreless first quarter.

Recent Super Bowls also strayed from the usual standards. Of the last 10 Super Bowls, the most common end-of-game square was three, which hit five times (25%), while eight hit four times (20%).

Seven, the most common outcome in Super Bowl history, did not hit once. Zero, one and four all hit three times (15%).

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