Super Bowl Expert Picks 2024: Novelty Props, Game Picks & Best Bets

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Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together their Super Bowl expert picks as the Kansas City Chiefs play the San Francisco 49ers based on the best NFL odds.

The Big Game is inching ever closer and the 2024 Super Bowl odds and lines across our best Super Bowl betting sites are as tight as ever as the Kansas City Chiefs prepare to take on the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

We’re making our Super Bowl expert picks as a complement to our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and the rest of our Super Bowl predictions. As always, Sportsbook Review advises you to shop around across our best NFL betting sites to ensure you’re getting the best possible odds on all of your picks. That’s what we’re here to help you do.

Here are our Super Bowl expert picks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

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2024 Super Bowl expert picks

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Expert Super Bowl predictions

Justin Watson Over 1.5 receptions ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +118 via FanDuel

I discussed in our Super Bowl player props that this will be the kind of game in which Patrick Mahomes throws primarily to his most trusted options. That was in reference to us fading Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Super Bowl receiving props.

Now, the problem with this is that beyond Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, it’s difficult to know who Mahomes even does trust, if anyone. However, Justin Watson has been featured as the No. 3 option numerous times throughout the season, and I expect him to fill that role again on Sunday.

Most of our best sports betting sites have Watson’s Over 1.5 receptions prop priced at either -105 or -110, with only Caesars offering similarly appealing odds at +110. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has the Over priced at +101.

Watson is projected to finish with 1.88 receptions in the Super Bowl. When we run that projection against these +118 odds via FanDuel on Over 1.5 receptions, we’re getting roughly 22% positive expected value on this bet.

You’re likely going to have to sweat a drop or two – or at least the possibility of them every time the ball is headed in Watson’s direction – but this bet is showing good value for those hunting plus-money odds on player props.

–– Andrew Brennan (SBRTwitter/X)

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Nick Bosa to record a sack ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +110 via Caesars

Bosa opened as the consensus favorite by the Super Bowl sack prop odds, but his odds have been on the rise over the past week. This new-found +110 ticket via Caesars for “Yes” in the book’s “Will Nick Bosa record a sack” market is one bettors need to jump on.

The 49ers pass rusher already sacked Patrick Mahomes once in the Super Bowl LIV meeting between these two sides. He also finished that game with five combined tackles and forced a fumble. That was as a rookie.

Bosa was made the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history in the fall and finished the regular season with a three-year low of 10.5 sacks across 17 games. He rebounded from being held without a sack through the Niners’ first two playoff games to record two in the NFC Championship.

We can also get Bosa to record the most sacks in Super Bowl 58 at +275 odds via BetMGM. If you think the 49ers are going to win on Sunday, the same book offers a market-best price of +12500 for Bosa in their Super Bowl MVP odds for those who missed the +15000 price before the conference championships.

–– Esten McLaren (SBRTwitter/X)

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Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via DraftKings

I’ve already gone into further detail on my favorite way to bet the spread, total, and props market in my Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, which I’d recommend checking out if you haven’t already.

One bet stands above the rest, though, and that’s the shortest touchdown.

At -140 odds, you’d expect this prop to cash roughly 58.3% of the time according to our odds converter. In reality, the shortest touchdown has been Under 1.5 yards in 36 of 57 Super Bowls (63.2%), and it cashed in seven of the last eight years – including each of Kansas City’s last three appearances – with a 70% hit rate over the last three decades.

Simply put, it’s much more common than you’d think for teams to march down the field to the 1-yard line, and that’s especially true for offenses with a prolific run game or short passing attack. That applies for the 49ers and Chiefs, who combined for three goal-line scores in Super Bowl LIV.

The Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles each scored a one-yard touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see multiple such scores in Super Bowl 58. You only need one to cash the Under on this bet, which is my single biggest position of the Big Game.

–– C Jackson Cowart (SBRTwitter/X)

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