F1 2023 season: Predictions, odds, betting tips and best bets for new Formula One campaign

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Formula One finally returns on March 3 for its first full weekend of the new 2023 season with the 24th running of the Bahrain Grand Prix. 

Back-to-back world champion Max Verstappen will be the man to beat again after he dominated throughout the 2022 campaign, winning his second title by a staggering 146 points.

His Red Bull team will also be keen to pick up where they left off after winning the 2022 Constructors’ Championship, though Ferrari and Mercedes will be hoping to eclipse their achievements this time around and fight back from their poor overall form last season. 

The Austrian energy drink branded team looked quick throughout preseason testing, with Verstappen looking comfortable in their new car in particular though Sergio Perez did go fastest of the pack on day three. 

Aston Martin could also be a team to watch out for this season as new star Fernando Alonso showcased throughout testing that their car for the 2023 season seemingly has pace in all the right areas to complete with the front runners. 

Ahead of the action getting underway, The Sporting News goes through all of the odds to give you the best bets and tips for the upcoming 2023 Formula One season. 

MORE: 2023 season calendar, list of circuits, fastest ever lap times and more

2023 F1 Drivers’ Championship odds

It’s not surprising to see that the bookmakers across the board have made Max Verstappen the favourite to win the 2023 Drivers’ Championship.

The Dutchman enters this season on the back of consecutive title winning campaigns, the last seeing him win the championship by a distance of 146 points as he and Red Bull dominated the season. 

Interestingly, Lewis Hamilton is second favourite for the title despite him struggling through large parts of last season though he and Mercedes did finish the year stronger. 

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is also expected to push the top pair all the way this season, priced at 5/1 with SkyBet which could be great value for given the fact that he finished last campaign in P2. George Russell now sits at 7/1 after testing, slipping from 5/1 previously.

Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez are priced as long shots at +2200 and +2500 respectively with BetMGM which could represent value, especially in the case of Perez. That’s because Red Bull could again dominant this season despite having less wind tunnel time during pre-season as a result of the Austrian team breaching cost cap regulations in 2022. 

But the big mover comes in the form of Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso who looked confident in his new car throughout 2023 preseason testing. As a result of those performances, the veteran Spaniard has dropped all the way down to 33/1 to win the title with SkyBet – from a high of 150/1 before testing.

MORE: What is the F1 cost cap and how are breaches punished? Process explained after Red Bull fined $7m for breaking rules

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Neds (Australia). All odds correct as of February 26.

Driver  BetMGM Sports
Interaction
SkyBet Neds
Max Verstappen 13/20 1.65 8/11 1.67
Lewis Hamilton 4/1 5.55 3/1 5.00
Charles Leclerc 4/1 5.65 5/1 5.00
George Russell 12/1 11.00 7/1 13.00
Carlos Sainz 22/1 26.00 25/1 23.00
Sergio Perez 25/1 30.00 40/1 26.00
Lando Norris 250/1 167.00 100/1 251
Fernando Alonso 33/1 39.00 33/1 34.00
Esteban Ocon 300/1 367.00 200/1 301
Pierre Gasly 500/1 527.00 250/1 501
Oscar Piastri 1000/1 667.00 300/1 1001
Valtteri Bottas 500/1 590.00 500/1 501
Lance Stroll 250/1 279.00 500/1 251
Kevin Magnussen 1000/1 653.00 1000/1 1001
Nico Hulkenburg 1000/1 1000/1
Nyck De Vries 2000/1 1252.00 750/1 2001
Alex Albon 2000/1 1112.00 2000/1 2001
Zhou Guanyu 1000/1 590.00 2000/1 1001
Logan Sargeant 2000/1 1112.00 2000/1 2001
Yuki Tsunoda 2000/1 1001.00 2000/1 2001

2023 F1 Constructors’ Championship odds

Given their domination last season, Red Bull are hot favourites to claim a second successive Constructors’ Championship title in 2023. 

According to the bookmakers, they’ll face tough opposition in the form of Mercedes however, who are considered second favourites to win the team trophy despite the German team struggling throughout large periods of last season. 

Ferrari remain off the pace in terms of odds to take their first Constructors’ Championship since 2008 this time around. That’s likely due to their severe reliability problems throughout 2022 which hugely frustrated drivers Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz as well as Tifosi fans worldwide. 

Constructor BetMGM Sports
Interaction
SkyBet Neds
Red Bull 13/20 1.66 5/6 1.60
Mercedes 5/2 3.75 6/5 3.50
Ferrari 3/1 4.00 11/2 4.00
McLaren 250/1 251.00 80/1 251
Alpine 150/1 151.00 100/1 151
Alfa Romeo 500/1 501.00 300/1 501
Aston Martin 50/1 51.00 50/1 251
AlphaTauri 750/1 751.00 500/1 751
Haas 1500/1 1501.00 500/1 1501
Williams 2500/1 2501.00 1000/1 2501

2023 Formula One season predictions

Despite their lack of wind tunnel time coming into the 2023 season owing to their cap regulation breaches last season, it’s difficult to see anyone getting the better of Max Verstappen and Red Bull again throughout the new F1 campaign.

Granted, if Mercedes continue their upward trajectory from the second half of last season, the German team and especially Lewis Hamilton — due to his vast experience — could come close to Red Bull and currently have by far the strongest package on the grid. 

It’ll be interesting to see how Ferrari react too. In the off-season they replaced former team principle Mattia Binotto with Alfa Romeo’s Frédéric Vasseur who did well in a team that seemed to have quite a low ceiling in recent years. 

The new look backroom set up at the Italian team could prove perfect for number one driver Charles Leclerc, who secured plenty of points last season but was left extremely frustrated with his car’s poor reliability and his team’s constant strategic blunders on race day.

Sergio Perez, George Russell and Carlos Sainz will also all be eyeing taking the next step in their careers and securing P1 in the World Drivers’ Championship come the end of the 2023 season.

Elsewhere, French team Alpine look primed to trouble the top three constructors given their car’s lightning speed last season, whilst Aston Martin have added Fernando Alonso to their ranks which should give the British team a boost on the racetrack, especially as he impressed throughout preseason testing. 

2023 Formula One season: Best bet

  • Pick: Max Verstappen to win Drivers’ Championship, Red Bull to win Constructors Championship
  • Odds: 6/4 (SkyBet)

As mentioned before, it’s still so difficult to see anything other than a Verstappen/Red Bull double in 2023.

The Dutchman broke all sorts of records last year, including setting the new benchmark for most races won in a single F1 season with 15, and will likely carry that blistering form into this season. 

He’ll be pushed of course by others, most notably rival Lewis Hamilton who is priced as the second favourite for the title, but Verstappen has consistently proven that he can handle the pressure now. Last season also saw him gain even more experience and as we’re sure even he’ll admit, learn how to better cope with situations on the race track. 

Red Bull will also be aided in their quest for another constructors’ title by second driver Sergio Perez who finished P3 last season, though just three points behind Leclerc in P2. If it weren’t for reliability issues, he could have easily taken second spot for the season but even so, he remains quick on the track in most situations and is one of the most experienced drivers on the grid now Sebastian Vettel has left the sport. 

2023 Formula One season prop bet

  • Pick: 1+ driver not to be classified in each race
  • Odds: 6/4 (SkyBet)

All but one race throughout last season saw at least one driver fail to be classified come the end of the event, and even that one saw Valtteri Bottas not actually finish the race. 

In the new age of F1 where cars can follow others much more closely, it opens up far more possibilities of intense battling that can quite easily end in retirements, both through collisions and the sheer pressure the drivers put on their cars through races. 

2023 Formula One season flier bet #1

  • Pick: Mercedes double podium in 8+ races
  • Odds: 2/1 (SkyBet)

One common preseason expectation for the forthcoming 2023 season is that Mercedes will be much stronger from the get go.

Mercedes really struggled during the early races of last season but finished strong towards the end to leave many thinking that they should be back for a Constructors’ Championship fight this time around. 

With that considered and even though a tally of eight double podiums seems steep on the face of things, Mercedes secured three last season with all three coming in the second half of 2022 proceedings. 

Drivers Lewis Hamilton and George Russell also proved consistent when their individual cars improved after last year’s midseason break so there’s definitely value to be had with this selection. 

2023 Formula One season flier bet #2

  • Pick: Max Verstappen to win championship, Charles Leclerc to finish second
  • Odds: 14/1 (SkyBet)

The value here comes from Leclerc to finish second in 2023 and ahead of teammate Sainz, Mercedes duo Hamilton and Russell and Red Bull’s Perez. 

Verstappen P1 and Leclerc P2 was not only what a number of race weekends saw as the final result last season but it’s also what the 2022 Drivers’ Championship finished as. 

Granted, Mercedes’ improvements throughout last season may see Leclerc pushed down the standings but write the Monegasque off at your own peril. 

That’s because Ferrari have made personnel changes which should improve their strategic decisions this time around and because Leclerc did secure three race wins and 11 podiums last season thanks to some fantastic driving and great pace. 

2023 Formula One season flier bet #3

  • Pick: Verstappen to score points in every race
  • Odds: 18/1 (SkyBet)

In Formula One, you have to be incredibly lucky to finish every race in a single season, though at 18/1 this bet offers really good value given that the Dutchman has taken points in 28 of his prior 30 races. 

Last season saw his Red Bull twice DNF in the opening three rounds of the season but 19 straight finishes in the points paying positions gives this selection a real chance. 

Couple that with the fact that teammate Sergio Perez only failed to finish in three races during the 2022 campaign and there’s a reasonable chance that Verstappen could take points in every single race this upcoming season thanks to the Austrian’s team reliability. 

How to watch the 2023 Formula One season

Country  TV Channel Live Stream
USA ESPN ESPN+, fuboTV
UK Sky Sports SkyGo, NOW TV
Canada TSN, RDS TSN Direct
Australia Fox Sports, Channel 10 Kayo

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